Temperatures are going to be climbing as we head into the weekend. A little more sunshine than the last couple of days should help to push temperatures into the mid 90s with heat index values pushing toward 108, which would be getting into the "Heat Advisory" range again.
High pressure that has dominated the southwest will expand eastward over the next several days. The upper trough that has been in place for the past few days will weaken, and ridging aloft will take hold once again. There's still enough moisture in place, so daytime heating should be able to spark off scattered showers and thunderstorms today, and over the weekend.
Expect highs today around 93 with a heat index near 105. Rain chances will be in the 50% range, and as we all know, some summertime pop up storms can dump some brief heavy rain. Most of the action will be during the afternoon hours, with storms dissipating with the loss of daytime heating during the evening.
Over the weekend, we can expect more of the same. Temperatures will climb into the mid 90s with heat index values between 105 and 110. Rain chances will stay in the 50% range in Acadiana. Most of the showers and storms will be during the afternoon hours, so plan accordingly.
Next week the ridge is expected to take a bit of a stronger hold on our forecast, so rain chances will drop off somewhat. Afternoon highs will reach the upper 90s with heat index values over 108. Expect heat advisories to be posted.
Tropical weather remains quiet, and should for the next several days. The team of Phil Klotzbach and researchers at Colorado State University have updated their seasonal forecast. The original numbers called for 13 named storms back in April, then upped it to 15 June 1st. The newest forecast is calling for 18 named storms (including the 4 so far this year).
Much of the increase is based on record high sea surface temperatures, but also the fact that the warm waters extend deep below the surface as well. Tropical systems can churn colder water well below and cool surface temperatures. When this heated water runs deep it's measured as "Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential" (TCHP). It's like premium fuel for tropical storms and hurricanes, and can allow developing tropical systems to intensify rapidly. High TCHP has been notable in the past couple of years that helped intensify Hurricanes Ida and Ian. It also influenced the record setting storms of 2020 and 2005 like Laura, Katrina, and Rita. Prepare now while things are quiet, and supplies are readily available. Remember, it only takes on storm to directly impact your normal daily life!
