Showers and thunderstorms will become likely for Acadiana into Wednesday evening with a risk of a few severe storms.
A frontal system combined with an upper level disturbance and an increasingly active jet stream aloft will combine to produce a broken line of showers and thunderstorms across the area into Wednesday evening.
The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has Acadiana hatched in for a marginal to slight (level 1 and 2 out of 5) of severe storms with this system.
Per the SPC, the primary threat would be for a few isolated storms that could produce damaging winds.
The higher risk of severe weather will be in the "slight risk" outlook area that includes the I-10 corridor northward into Central and Northern Louisiana.
One or two cells may exhibit some rotation that could produce an isolated tornado.
Per usual, the lower-level marine layer of the Gulf of Mexico escorted by gusty southerly winds may keep storm-producing instability in check, but there could be a few storms, perhaps a supercell or two, that could break that stability cap.
There could be a tornado or severe thunderstorm watch issued for portions of Acadiana tomorrow afternoon/evening, especially for our northern parishes, continuing into the northern part of the state but that is not a done deal by any stretch of the imagination.
The storms will be moving along quickly, so heavy rainfall is not a concern.
In general most spots will catch roughly 1/2-1" of rain.
Prime time for the storms from west to east across Acadiana will be from near 6pm through midnight...with St Mary and Lower St Martin parishes perhaps under the gun for a few hours more.
Lafayette prime-time looks to be between 9pm and 11pm, give or take an hour.
In the near term, expect breezy and mild conditions for most of the night into Wednesday morning with temperatures holding in the upper 60s.
Wednesday will be mostly cloudy, windy and seasonably warm with a few scattered showers possible into the afternoon hours.
Rain chances late tomorrow afternoon will increase from near early 30% to 60% late.
Rain chances Wednesday evening will increase to near 90% or better.
Southerly winds will increase to 15-25 mph by mid-morning Wednesday with gusts pushing 30-35 mph into the afternoon.
Wind gusts could approach 40-45 mph near and in showers and storms into Wednesday evening, but will relax from a westerly directiont behind the storms after midnight.
Expect clearing skies into Thursday morning with with mostly sunny, breezy and seasonably mild conditions anticipated along with highs near 70°.
It will get cooler Thursday night into Friday.
The break from the rain will be short-lived as the pattern stays active with clouds returning Friday ahead of our next weather-maker that will likely bring a good soaking to the area into Saturday.
Periods of rain and thunder will be likely into Saturday with the threat of several inches of rain...although there may be some thunder with this weekend's weather system, severe weather is not anticipated.
Some locally heavy rainfall of 1-3" will be possible with Saturday's system.
Precipitation should draw to an end by Sunday morning with a break likely through Monday before yet another weather-maker could follow by Tuesday and/or Wednesday of next week.
Overall, after Thursday, temperatures look to stay near or slightly below normal this weekend into much of next week, with above normal rainfall a fairly safe bet.
See the KATC 10 Day Forecast for the latest.
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