A prolonged threat of severe storms and flooding rains are in the forecast for Acadiana overnight through midday Wednesday.
The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) upgraded most of Acadiana to an "enhanced" risk, level 3 out of 5, of severe storms through Wednesday while a Flash Flood Watch is also in effect through Wednesday afternoon.
A massive low pressure system bringing blizzard conditions to the High Plains and severe weather southward toward the Arklatex Tuesday afternoon will slowly migrate eastward overnight through Wednesday.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are anticipated through the evening and overnight hours for the area, and with fairly robust atmospheric wind profiles, a few rotating storms will be possible especially for the northern parishes in the area.
The SPC has indicated that the primary hazards with the storms in the region will be for the possibility of a few strong/intense tornadoes (EF2 intensity or greater possible) and damaging winds.
The most likely areas for tornadoes should be somewhat removed from the proximity of the Gulf overnight...generally from the I-10 corridor northward.
Dynamics may weaken a bit overnight but are expected to intensify again Wednesday morning impacting much the area through midday and then advancing into Southeast Louisiana during the latter part of the afternoon.
While there might be a few isolated spots where flooding may occur Tuesday night, with a secondary upper low pressure system rolling around to the south of the upper low instigating the weather-maker across the US, may amplify Acadiana's flood threat into Wednesday.
There will likely be a slow eastward push of showers and storms reaching the most populated areas of Acadiana after midnight, with the secondary low, storms may stall, repeat over the same areas (training) or may back build to the west...before eventually moving eastward into Wednesday afternoon.
This type of set-up is notorious for producing flooding rains locally but where this ultimately sets-up won't be known until we're in the midst of the event.
Nonetheless, per our high resolution model rain totals for most areas of Acadiana should be in the 1-3" range.
Isolated areas may see up to 3-6".
The Euro remains the most pessimistic of all the models bringing the heaviest rainfall of 3-6" across more widespread areas.
The Weather Prediction Center that monitors rainfall across the U.S. has much of Acadiana up to a "moderate" risk of excessive rainfall Wednesday...that's a level 3 out of 4 on this scale.
Nonetheless stay weather-aware overnight and be on the look-out for possible flooding through Wednesday.
After the storms exit east tomorrow afternoon, drier and eventually much cooler temperatures are on the way.
An arctic front could reach the area toward the end of next week, possibly insuring that the Christmas period could be quite cold...sub-freezing temperatures at night and highs in the 40s around Christmas would not be surprising.
For now, it appears that if and when colder weather arrives before Christmas, there is no definitive sign for any winter precipitation that could follow.
For now though, consult the KATC 10 Day forecast.
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