Acadiana's weather will remain mostly cloudy and will be getting warmer ahead of a low pressure system that promises to deliver showers and some strong to possibly severe storms across the area Wednesday.
In the near term, expect milder conditions overnight with temperatures holding in the mid-60s along with the chance of scattered, mostly light, quick-passing showers overnight.
Tuesday will bring more cloud cover with the chance of scattered showers (50%).
Rain chances Tuesday will be highest near a weak frontal boundary that will try to sag southward from the northern Acadiana parishes to the vicinity of the I-10 corridor before retreating back to the north Tuesday night.
Our focus will then shift on an area of low pressure that will develop across Texas Tuesday night and advance toward South Louisiana Wednesday.
The position of the surface low pressure system will be key in determining where any severe weather threat will be greatest, and also where the highest risk of heaviest rains will develop.
Late Monday afternoon the NAM Model became better in sync with the Euro pointing to a low that will keep a good part of the I-10 corridor on southward in the more unstable warm sector of the system.
On top of that, very favorable wind profiles from the surface to aloft show a strong a pronounced veering of winds (clockwise movement) Wednesday.
Thus, the Storm Prediction Center has Acadiana hatched in for a "slight risk" (level 2 out of 5) for the possibility of rotating supercell thunderstorms that could produce isolated tornadoes and/or damaging winds...perhaps even some hail.
In fact, conditions may warrant an upgrade to the outlook area, perhaps to an "enhanced" level 3 out 5, risk of severe storms for extreme Southeast Louisiana as we get closer to the weather event, and also get a better beat on the exact positioning of the surface low.
Per usual, cooler shelf water temperatures along our coast could mitigate some of the severe weather threats Wednesday, but the upper dynamics and instability could certainly overcome that factor so stay weather aware for Wednesday.
I would expect "tornado watches" for portions of Acadiana Wednesday.
In addition, there will likely be some locally heavy rainfall of up to 2-3" in spots which could lead to some localized street flooding, but at this time it appears the highest totals will be from northern portions of Acadiana on northeastward into Mississippi...but stay tuned for changes on this element too.
Nonetheless, a solid soaking is expected Wednesday with rain chances pegged near 100% for a good part of the day.
Drier and cooler air with some clearing in the afternoon returns Thursday with sunny and seasonably cool conditions anticipated for our Friday.
This coming weekend will be very similar to last weekend with fair partly cloudy skies Saturday and clouds increasing for Sunday.
Highs will range from the mid-60s Saturday and rise closer to 70 Sunday.
It looks likely scattered showers will be back into the forecast Monday through Wednesday of next week before the next front rolls through the area.
