The odds of scattered showers and a few thunderstorms should be on the increase over the next couple of days as a weakening frontal boundary sags into the Acadiana area Wednesday.
A weak nearly stationary front along with a weak upper disturbance are expected to drop southward into Acadaiana Wednesday afternoon and evening which should help to spark scattered showers and a few embedded thunderstorms primarily late Wednesday afternoon into the evening hours.
The same system will gradually dissipate across the coastal waters Thursday, with enough lift combined with another upper disturbance keeping the chance of showers and a few storms with us into Thursday.
Model guidance on the rain chances has not been consistent nor very good, so for now we'll go with a 40-50% chance of getting wet for both late Wednesday and Thursday.
Most of us will not see much rain over the next couple of days...generally 1/4" or less, but there could be a few spots that get a good two day soaking as outlined by the HRRR model below:
Temperatures should still top out in the lower 90s Wednesday but might hold for the first time in nearly 100 days below 90° Thursday depending on cloud cover and shower activity.
Thereafter, rain chances should ease back down to 20% Friday into Saturday, with another frontal trough reaching our area by Saturday night.
Highs this weekend into early next week will be in the lower 90s but could rise into the mid-90s later in the week.
The pattern for all of next week appears quite dry.
See the KATC 10 Day Forecast for the latest.
Meanwhile in the tropics, we're monitoring two hurricanes and another pending tropical system in the open Atlantic.
While Hurricane Margot looks to meander and weaken in the open Atlantic, another system farther to the south has an 80% chance of development...this potential system could become the next tropical storm and hurricane...if so, the next name on the "list" is "Nigel".
It's too early to tell whether the next developing system could have U.S. impacts, but it does not appear to be a threat to the Gulf of Mexico.
The big tropical story in the tropics remains Major Hurricane Lee, which continues to expand it's large wind field while expected to only slowly weaken as it eventually treks northward toward Nova Scotia this weekend....albeit as a Category 1 storm, but one that will have widespread impacts due to its large wind field.
Lee is expected to produce tropical storm conditions on the island of Bermuda by Thursday with large waves, rip currents and some coastal erosion likely across a huge swath of the U.S. East Coast through the rest of the week.
Portions of New England, especially Maine, and perhaps Cape Cod, could have direct impacts from this storm late Friday into Saturday.
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