Acadiana's active weather pattern will peak on Monday as the region braces for a series of upper level disturbances that could lead to a series of strong, possibly severe, storms.
The overall set up is a tricky one and there's a few different features that will interact with each other through the day, which means models have limited usefulness and the best way to be prepared is to keep an eye on the radar.
There's a frontal boundary draped just north of Acadiana early Monday morning which has been the focal point of active weather so far, concentrating heavy rain and storms in the northern half of the state.
Just to the west, however, and upper level low is moving across the country which could in turn force the front south into Acadiana, and in turn bringing the focal point of showers and storms into our area for the afternoon and evening.
There's enough severe weather ingredients in place that it seems likely that we'll end up a few watches and warning through the day, and since the storms will arrive in several rounds we'll have to stay vigilant through the day.
Our biggest threats with the storms will be damaging wind and large hail, something we saw a lot of with Sunday's storms.
There is a bit of deep level shear which will increase the tornado threat for the day and rotation can't be ruled out.
Keep in mind that these types of tornado threats can be particularly messy and isolated tornadoes along lines of thunderstorms can often be hard to spot on radar.
The flooding threat is difficult to nail down, and again goes back to the limited value in model data during events like this one.
We do have a Flood Watch up in the northern half of the state but Allen, Evangeline, and Avoyelles Parish are all included, so there is potential for a localized flood event.
That being said the specific flood threat is going to be largely dependent on where the front spends the majority of the day.
It looks like 1-2" would be a good bet area wide but some isolated cases of 3-4" totals wouldn't be surprising and that could cause some minor flooding in areas.
Again as a caution, models are limited here and the numbers have varied run to run so don't rely on one particular set of numbers.
Timing is difficult but if we try and break down the day I think it'll end up looking a bit like this:
Morning hours will be a series of isolated to scattered showers and storms streaming across the area into the front, producing quick bursts of rainfall.
Late morning to early afternoon is hopefully when we'll get a quick break and a chance for morning rain to soak in a little.
Mid afternoon to evening looks like we'll get a series of storms sweeping in which could produce some nasty weather during the commute.
Dinner time should provide another quick break in the action before a final round comes through late tonight with strong showers and storms closing out the final hours of Monday.
This is a best guess type scenario based on model trends the last few days but specific timing will be tricky and watching the radar will be the best course of action.
