As organization continues in the north Caribbean it seems likely that we'll get our next named storm of the Atlantic season in Tropical Storm Helene by the end of the day.
Right off the top there are no impacts expected in Acadiana and we're not expecting any hard west turn that would change that fact.
Since a lot of folks have plenty of interests along the Florida Gulf Coast I figured I'd dive in a little to what this storm could potentially produce.
Tropical Storm Watches have been issued for roughly Panama City to Apalachicola along the Florida Panhandle, and then for central Florida, Florida's west coast down into the Florida Keys.
A Hurricane Watch has been placed from Tampa to Apalachicola all along the coast and as far inland as the Florida Georgia border.
Watches are issued roughly 48 hours in advance, and will likely be upgraded to a warning as track confidence builds and the arrival window becomes shorter.
Landfall is expected to be sometime Thursday afternoon/evening between Apalachicola and Cedar Key along the Florida Big Bend as a major category 3 storm with winds pushing 120 mph.
This is a part of the coastline, similar to Louisiana, that is very susceptible to storm surge which could be between 10 and 15 feet in areas west of Ochlockonee Bay to the Chassahowitzka River (near Homosassa Springs).
A 5-10 foot surge could be possible west of Ochlockonee Bay to Indian Pass (just west of Apalachicola) with higher than normal tides spreading west across the entire Florida Panhandle, south of Homosassa Springs surge could still exceed 8 feet including along the Tampa Bay which could cause coastal flooding in the city.
If you live in, or know people who live in these areas please make sure they they heed all local evacuation warnings as surge related damage will be significant.
There is some shear working against the system Tuesday morning, which has prevented it from closing off so far but models are indicating that the shear may start to weaken.
The next big hurdle will be how it clears the Yucatan and if it gets a relatively clean release or gets caught up with some land interaction on its way to the Gulf.
Regardless, once in the Gulf conditions will be favorable for rapid development and strengthening with intensity models starting to indicate the Category 4 is not off the table with this system.
Again, the release of the Yucatan will go a long way in determining the ultimate strength of the storm and whether it favors the western or eastern side of the cone.
Latest model guidance would suggest probably the eastern side closer to Cedar Key.
If you have travel plans this week to areas between Gulf Shores and Destin it's not an automatic cancel but there are some things you should be aware of over the next few days.
Weather will not be particularly pleasant with Wednesday and Thursday fairly stormy, especially the Florida Beaches which will be on the edge of tropical storm forced winds.
Tides will be running very high and the surf will be violent, a very high rip current risk will exist through Friday even after the storm has lifted north.
It would not be advisable to get in the Gulf of Mexico this week given it's condition and even that far away from the center I would expect double red flags.
Areas east of Destin, this includes the 30A area should probably be avoided as that will be even closer to the center and again the weather won't be pleasant and the seas will be dangerous.
If you do plan on going keep in mind that a small shift to the west edge of the cone could dramatically change the potential impacts.
