We've made it to the time on the calendar circled by most residents on the Gulf Coast, the official start of hurricane season.
The season officially runs from June 1st to November 30th, with the peak arriving between mid August and early October.
A lot has been made about the seasonal forecast for 2024 and for good reason, the seasonal forecasts have been pretty sobering.
When Dr. Klotzbach issued his forecast back in April he called it "the most active"forecast he'd ever put together.
NOAA's forecast which was released a week ago seemed to be of similar thinking, and other seasonal forecasts seemed to be in agreement. (NOAA's and Dr. Klotzbach's are typically the most reliable to they're the ones we focus on but there are others out there)
As always these numbers need to be approached with nuance, they're not predictors of land falling storms nor are they predictors of where storms will impact.
So while we can't say whether or not it will be a busy season locally in Acadiana we can say that the more storms that are out there the higher chance that one of them will impact our region.
And all it takes is one to have a rough season.
So let's start with the good news:
As a Gulf Coast forecaster looking to stay sane this tropical season I'm going to celebrate every week the tropics remain quiet... so that's one week down, twenty six to go.
It's all well and good to post a bunch of numbers up there but without a little context those numbers don't mean a whole lot so let's dig in on what's behind those number and why the forecast is so busy.
Let's start with the simplest factor which is water temperature, the Atlantic has been boiling all winter with no sign of cooling.
It's hard to articulate how dramatic the Atlantic has been, consecutively setting record high temperatures for the last several months.
In the zone where tropical activity forms the sea temperatures through May have been at the levels we would typically see in late August (see above where we discuss the peak of the season).
That is quite literally unheard of.
The heat has also spread closer to home in the Gulf of Mexico where over the last few days buoys off the Florida coast have been recording water temperatures around 90 degrees, remember we are just starting June.
Even the recorded minimum temperature at the Virginia Key was hotter than the record high, and the recorded high beat the previous record by over two degrees.
Two degrees may not sound like a lot but when it comes to sea temperatures it's huge.
So why does all this matter?
Simply put warm water is what fuels storms.
It's the gasoline that keeps the engine running and while there are plenty of other factors at play without warm water you can't have hurricanes.
Once a storm develops it uses the warm ocean water to build strength so the warmer the water the stronger potential strength.
The warm water is only one piece of the puzzle albeit a fairly big one.
One of the other factors going into the record seasonal forecast is taking place in another ocean entirely, the onset of La Nina.
Pictured above are sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the equatorial Pacific.
You'll notice among all the yellow are some blue collars creeping in, that blue represents cooler than normal conditions.
A clear sign that we are transitioning out of El Nino and into La Nina.
The next few months we'll see that cooler anomaly become more apparent as La Nina grows in strength and it's global impacts become more pronounced.
La Nina's peak this year will coincide with the traditional peak of hurricane season.
The reason La Nina is important is because it lowers wind shear across the Gulf of Mexico which plays a major role in storm development.
Wind shear measures strength and change in winds as you get higher in the atmosphere, as shear goes up so does the strength of the winds.
These strong winds at altitude will battle back against towering storms and prevents them from getting the organization they need to seal themselves off and strengthen.
Storms that look raggedy in appearance are typically under the influence of high shear and the without being sealed off leaves the storms vulnerable for dry air which can get in and choke off convection.
Weak shear = strong storms.
The third and final piece of the equation takes us out of the Pacific and into sub Saharan Africa, the origin point for storms blowing across the Atlantic.
Tropical waves coming off the African coast get out over warm Atlantic waters where they have the chance of strengthening.
These waves originate from seasonal monsoons and the forecast for this monsoon season is, you guessed it, an active one.
Now real ones know it's not just waves that come off the African coast but also plenty of dry, dusty air that blows off the Saharan desert.
That dusty air does have an impact in limiting storm development and will often choke off storms before they get going, however, this really only dominates for the first portion of the summer.
Eventually after enough tropical waves come through it settles down the dust, think about how much our daily showers settle down dust, pollen, etc.
As the dust wanes the waves pick up the pace, which is why traditionally most African born systems develop during the season's peak (August and September).
As we sit at the beginning of the season it's important to make sure that you've reviewed your plan of action in case you need it this year.
Take an assessment of the gear you have and figure out what you need to be prepared for the upcoming year.
The hope is that it can sit in a closet and we can forget about it, but if the season plays out the way the forecast suggests chances are we'll at least need to think about getting it out.
It only takes one storm to make a busy season so we should approach every season this way, and in the mean time we'll take any week without an active storm.
One week down, twenty six to go.
