UPDATE 10:00 A.M. SEPTEMBER 10TH:
The National Hurricane Center has updated the track of soon to be Hurricane Francine, shifting center slightly east which follows with the model trend from Tuesday morning.
Its seems like dry air and shear will push into the system upon approach and they've lessened the intensity at landfall slightly.
That's not to say that this won't be a dangerous storm, and most of the impacts remain unchanged.
Intensification is underway and will continue through the day and into tomorrow.
Tropical Storm Francine continues it's journey to Louisiana Tuesday morning with winds around 65 mph moving NNW at a slow 5 mph.
Strengthening is expected through the day and a hurricane is expected by the afternoon along with faster movement toward the coast.
Landfall is expected Wednesday along Vermilion Bay as a Category 2 storm with winds near 100 mph around the center.
Expect tropical storm force winds to start stretching across Acadiana Wednesday morning and possibly along the coast as early as Tuesday night.
Conditions are expected to rapidly deteriorate through the day Wednesday so final preparation needs to be completed by the end of Tuesday.
Francine will spend the day gaining strength and will continue to intensify into early Wednesday morning.
Many of the Gulf storms over the last few years have undergone a phenomenon known as rapid intensification, and while we may see that with Francine there are some limiting factors that could put a cap on the upper end of it's intensity.
Dry air and shear to the north will counteract against Francine and while there are some outlier models most seem to think that this will prevent Francine from becoming a major hurricane, but that does not mean it won't be dangerous.
We'll refer heavily from here on out to the GRAF model, a short range model that seems to do very well with tropical systems, notice that it's slightly east of the NHC track so there's still some wiggle room.
Through the rest of this article instead of focusing on specific numbers think about how conditions appear around the center and from over the next 24 hours as we see where the center sets up you'll have an idea of what to expect.
The GRAF has been a little faster over the last few days moving Francine into Acadiana mid morning on Wednesday, while it may be a little quick it does indicate that this will more than likely be more of a day time storm instead of overnight.
It also means a shorter window for storm prep, which again needs to be wrapped up by Tuesday.
Those who are worried about a rapidly intensifying system can find small comfort in the fact that Francine begins to lost some structure upon approach a sign that dry air and shear will be working.
Again referring to the GRAF which is on the more intense end of potential outcomes and a little faster and to the east of the official NHC forecast.
It's useful though because it gives us an idea of what winds will be like around the center at landfall.
Hurricane force winds should stay pretty confined to the center, and it doesn't look like a widespread swath of Category 2 strength winds, which seem to quickly diminish after landfall.
That, however, is sustained winds we will still need to be prepared for gusts that could reach 85+ mph across all of Acadiana.
Expect downed trees and power lines along with widespread power outages through the day on Wednesday.
Our ground is fairly saturated as well and with the heavy rain it could increase the chance of trees becoming uprooted.
Damage to roofs and structures will still be possible along with flying debris.
Rain totals are still expected to be around 4-8" with a band just east of the center that could produce up to a foot of rain.
Flash flooding will be a concern especially the areas along and east of the center, you'll notice a tight gradient to the west with rain totals rapidly dropping off the further west you travel.
Obviously this kind of rain will put a stress on drains so expect water in low lying areas and pooling up along the roads.
While it may seem obvious do not travel around during the storm and avoid any flooded roadways.
Rivers will be running full and fast especially as water piles up along the coast with storm surge so be mindful of some backwater flooding along the Vermilion and Bayou Teche.
Acadiana's coastline should expect a storm surge of 5-10 feet with the highest surge occurring on the eastern side of Vermilion Bay.
This means you can expect major flooding along the coast and water coming up through many of the canals.
Areas south of Highway 14 in Vermilion Parish and south of Highway 90 in St. Mary will see water encroaching through the day with the worst of the flooding expected in St. Mary Parish.
Please heed all evacuation orders and if you are in an area expecting significant storm surge it is best to evacuate.
Once again all storm preparation needs to be completed by the end of the day and by Wednesday you need to be set and ready to ride out the storm.
Unfortunately this isn't our first rodeo, and it certainly won't be our last, but just because we've done this before doesn't make it any less anxiety inducing.
These storms can be really scary but the best way to push back against that fair is to be prepared and to be informed.
So just know that we'll be with you the whole way from the first rain bands to the skies finally clearing.
