We've got a few more days of reasonable temperatures before an Arctic air mass moves in across the country.
So if you've not gotten those exposed pipes ready for the cold yet you'll want to set time aside to have that done by Sunday afternoon.
Temperatures, ironically enough, will be slightly above average Friday and Saturday with highs in the upper 60s and maybe even 70 on Saturday.
This will come along with plenty of cloud cover which will be locked in for the next few days, and may even produce a few spotty showers early Saturday morning.
The front arrives on Sunday and temperatures will stay in the 40s with strong winds coming in from the north, you'll still have time to get those pipes wrapped up before the sun goes down but it may not be as nice as Friday or Saturday.
This is when temperatures stop being reasonable and they will plummet through the night into Monday morning, eventually getting down into the 20s (this will not be the coldest morning of the week).
Wind chill values will be in the teens and once the wind chill dips below freezing Sunday afternoon it will remain below freezing for a few days (remember this is wind chill this won't cause things to freeze).
Wednesday morning the wind chill will likely be in the single digits, this is dangerous cold and needs to be taken seriously.
I know we joke a lot about southerners and cold but in this case the concern is warranted, especially since most of our wardrobes aren't really equipped for this kind of weather.
On top of the temperatures we've also got a chance to see a little winter precipitation (I know most of you reading this have been waiting to get to this particular topic) and we finally may be building a little confidence.
Models have pulled themselves together a little and are showing signs of consensus and a little consistency.
The window remains Tuesday, with flurries starting up overnight Monday and continuing through the day on Tuesday.
It's hard to get a handle on accumulation but I'm feeling better that we'll get at least a solid dusting by Tuesday afternoon.
There's still the risk that a warm upper layer of air moves in and could briefly transition flurries back to freezing rain or sleet which could make travel particularly hazardous.
Remember that it can take a little while for this stuff to clear up on the roads so we will likely see tricky travel conditions continue into Wednesday.
This is in line with the natural progression of the forecast process as we are now at the five day marker, and feeling a little better about our chances (which I'm putting at about 60%).
Over the weekend we'll start to get a better sense of timing, accumulation, etc. so thanks to everyone for being patient (some more than others).
