The 2024 hurricane season was an impactful season that met high expectation, despite a relatively slow start. The most active part came in the latter half of the season.
The justification for the early season forecast included many factors, but two main focus factors for the predictions were the transition into La Nina along with higher than average sea surface temperatures, or SSTs. Hurricane season begins on June 1st and runs officially until November 30th.
Below is a graphical representation of tropical activity climatology for reference on average activity through the season. So, did the season perform as forecasted? Lets take a look.
Going into the season predictions from NOAA estimated a well above normal season.
NOAA forecasted the following:
20 - 25 Named Storms
8 - 13 Hurricanes
4 - 7 Major Hurricanes (which is specifically Category 3+)
The season overall was in fact an above average, especially after September, with totals exceeded the season averages, verifying NOAA's forecast.
A final total as of today, November 27, 2024 is:
18 Named Storms
11 Hurricanes
5 Major Hurricanes
Louisiana was impacted directly by Hurricane Francine which made landfall on September 11, 2024 roughly 30 miles from Morgan City as a category 2 Hurricane.
A deeper look at Hurricane Francine and the impacts to our home state will be reviewed later in this article along with the other two major storms of the season. Let's continue first to look at a bit more of the seasonal data.
So, what are the averages? This image below reveals the 30-year average totals and compares them against the NOAA forecast and actual storms that formed.
Out of the 18 named storms for our 2024 hurricane season:
1. Five hurricanes made landfall on the US coast. These included: Beryl, Debby, Francine, Helene, and Milton.
2. Two land-falling hurricanes were major storms (Category 3+). These included: Hurricane Helene, which made landfall as a Category 4 storm just south of Perry, Florida on Thursday, September 26th. This also included Hurricane Milton, a Category 3 storm which made landfall in Siesta Key, Fl on Wednesday, October 9th.
3. In the image above, averages can be seen as the following: Named Storms - 14, Hurricanes - 7, and Major Hurricanes - 3.
Created by: Jobie Lagrange and Rob Perillo
Below is a recap from NOAA of the storm tracks and intensity for the 2024 hurricane season. It is worth noting that some storms are still undergoing post-analysis, and these are sometimes updated/adjusted after the season is over and closed. It can be found here.
When early season predictions were being discussed, a large topic surrounding these predictions were higher than normal sea surface temperatures. So lets take a look at what those were measured to be.
This image below shows NOAA's derived mean sea surface temperatures for the Gulf of Mexico for each month of 2024 from January until October.
This image shows derived observed temperatures for the most recent days in November of 2024.
To summarize these temperatures, SSTs started off anomalously warm, and even post season, continue to be so.
This can be seen on these two maps below that show areas that are anomalously warm. There is overall less area in the Atlantic tropics that remained anomalously warmer, but we can see the Gulf of Mexico remains warmer than usual.
Finally, lets take a look at some of the most notable storms that occurred this season. It feels important to do a deeper dive on a few of these storms, as their impacts were incredibly severe and tragic.
Acknowledging the loss and lasting impacts to those communities is important to do because although hurricane season is coming to a close, our neighboring communities will be in recovery mode long past the official closing date of November 30th. They will continue to need help in recovery efforts as our daily monitoring of the tropics comes to and end.
Hurricane Francine
Hurricane Francine was the only storm of the 2024 Hurricane Season to make landfall in Louisiana. This occurred on September 11th, 2024, when Francine made landfall as a low-end Category 2 Hurricane.
Landfall was near the mouth of the Atchafalaya River. Maximum sustained wind observational data as the storm was making landfall was recorded at 76 mph with a peak wind gust of 105 mph. St Mary Parish experienced the highest storm surge totals between 2.2 and 2.8 feet.
The highest observed rainfall totals was 8.56 inches at Bayou Millhome in Stephensville, LA. Coastal areas unfortunately had damage due to flooding, especially in areas such as the Lake Side Community near Morgan City.
Hurricane Helene
Hurricane Helene had particularly devastating impacts, most notably in North Carolina. Helene was North Carolina's deadliest storm in it's history. An early estimate of 96 souls were lost per the North Carolina's Governors Office as of October 23, 2024. The initial estimate from this same report for infrastructure damage and costs is estimated to exceed $53 billion dollars, per the Office of State Budget and Management office in North Carolina.
Overall storm impacts also included extreme rainfall, catastrophic flooding and storm surge, and extreme inland impacts which were a result of it's incredibly large size and movement speed. Total death toll estimates as a result of Helene, at this time, are well over 200. The storm had resulted in complete destruction of roadways and communities, particularly in the Appalachians.
The areas impacted are facing recovery roads years and years long before they are back to what may be as close to normal as they will ever get. Florida saw tragic impacts as well, including exceeding storm surge records along with lots of wind damage. The full report from the North Carolina Governor can be found here.
Hurricane Milton
Hurricane Milton was a destructive storm that stood out due to it's rapid intensification that occurred in the Gulf of Mexico. Milton started out as a tropical storm on October 5th and by October 7th had rapidly intensified into a category 5 hurricane. Milton soon after made landfall in Florida on October 9th in Siesta Key, Florida as a Category 3 hurricane.
This put Hurricane Milton in 5th place in the Top 5 strongest Atlantic storms of all time. Although it thankfully weakened prior to landfall, it was Florida's third land-falling hurricane of the season and brought devastating impacts including significant storm surge, flooding, and produced numerous tornadoes upon landfall.
