One of the first hurricane season forecasts is out, and there are signs that we're moving into an El Nino pattern which normally brings less Atlantic Hurricane activity.
The team at Colorado State University, led by Dr. Phil Klotzbach are forecasting numbers that are slightly below normal compared to an average hurricane season. This would be welcome news since the past three hurricane seasons were at or above normal during a rare "triple dip" of La Nina years. This would include the record setting 2020 season that brought Hurricane Laura and 29 other named storms. 2021s season bringing Hurricane Ida to Louisiana, and 2022s season bringing Hurricane Ian's devastation to the Florida coast.
El Nino conditions are present when Pacific waters warm off of the coast of South America. The opposite happens when those same waters cool, causing La Nina. Both El Nino and La Nina bring more predictable patterns during hurricane season. Generally during El Nino, we see less Atlantic storms, while during La Nina years, we see more.
CSU and Dr. Klotzbach are forecasting 13 named storms, 6 becoming hurricanes and 2 reaching Category 3 or higher. This is just slightly less than a normal hurricane season that brings just over 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes of Category 3 or higher.
While not always the case, some El Nino seasons have caused significant destruction. 1992 was an El Nino year, and only a few storms formed. Hurricane Andrew devastated south Florida and Louisiana and 1992 went down in history as the costliest hurricane season until 2005's Katrina hit.
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