A complicated, multi-day severe weather threat is shaping up for Acadiana for the next two days with the earliest storms arriving Tuesday afternoon and clearing not fully expected until Wednesday afternoon.
Tuesday:
The SPC has expanded the area under an Enhanced Risk (Level 3) to just south of the I-10 corridor and extended north to roughly I-20 in the northern part of the state.
This is to take into account the potential for some isolated storms that will be capable of producing tornadoes late Tuesday afternoon and into the overnight hours.
A layer of clouds will help limit the number of storms that will develop, but as a warm front lifts north there will be enough heating and forcing to get a few storms going.
Anything that develops will need to be monitored closely as the dynamics for supercell development will be in place.
This is going to be particularly true for areas that are north of Highway 190 as some of the highest amounts of instability will be found in central Louisiana, which will make for a more favorable environment for tornado development.
These isolated cells will continue through the night before the arrival of the main front which won't swing through until Wednesday morning, which is when we may see the addition of a flooding threat across Acadiana.
Wednesday:
The Enhanced Risk will slide south and east on Wednesday as the discreet cells will give way to a more organized line of thunderstorms as the cold front pushes across the region.
Timing of this will be Wednesday morning, which means that there could be some nasty storms rolling through when many people are trying to get to work.
It'll be important to check the radar before heading to work and be mindful of the weather outside, not just from the possibility of severe weather but heavy rains could lead to localized flooding.
A Flood Watch has been issued for all of Acadiana through the night Tuesday and into Wednesday morning as the frontal boundary is expected to produce some very heavy rain.
Some models have backed off slightly on the rain totals but it would still be wise to plan for about 2-4" with a few areas seeing higher amounts, this could lead to some localized flooding and could add to Wednesday morning's headaches.
The rain totals will depend on the speed of the front and the faster it moves through the less it will produce, and some of the shorter range models seem to be speeding it up slightly.
Rain totals can be really tricky and you can see drastic swings from one model to another so don't get caught up on specific numbers, instead try and notice if the overall numbers are going up or down.
Along with the rainfall Acadiana will still face the threat of severe weather as the main line passes with damaging wind and tornadoes the main concern.
As the storms become more organized and linear tornadoes will become more isolated and spin up in nature, developing along the frontal boundary of the system.
Winds, however, will become more widespread and will be the biggest threat Acadiana faces.
This should wind down by Wednesday afternoon and the colder air will be allowed to move into the area by the end of the day, setting up a quiet, cool period for the end of the week.
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